Russia's diesel export ban triggers global fuel price surge

In early July, Russia announced a temporary ban on diesel exports lasting until the end of the month, citing the need to secure domestic supply after Ukrainian drone attacks reduced refinery output. Russia, the world’s second‑largest diesel exporter after the United States, saw daily shipments fall from an average of about 817,000 barrels in 2025 to roughly 234,000 barrels between 1‑10 July. The ban lifted previously reduced volumes and pushed diesel prices sharply higher: U.S. ultra‑low‑sulphur diesel jumped 11 % to around $154 per barrel, while European gasoil recorded a record premium of about $60 per barrel over Brent.

The shock came amid already tight global fuel markets, driven by post‑pandemic demand, Western refinery closures and renewed conflict in the Middle East that strained shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries that previously relied on Russian diesel – Brazil, Turkey, several African states – were forced to seek alternative supplies. Brazil rapidly shifted its imports from Russia to the United States, increasing U.S. diesel’s share of its imports from 36 % to 78 % in July, while India entered the market. Analysts warn that sustained high diesel prices could feed inflation, raise freight and agricultural costs, and impose political pressure in Russia ahead of the September State Duma elections.