Russia's dwindling recruits weaken its Ukraine offensive

Russia is facing a sharp decline in voluntary recruitment for its war in Ukraine despite offering large cash bonuses, debt forgiveness and accelerated citizenship. Recruitment numbers fell about 20 % in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the previous year, and experts say the Kremlin is now losing more soldiers than it can replace, with estimates of around 500,000 Russian deaths and hundreds of thousands fleeing conscription. To fill gaps Moscow has turned to former prisoners, foreign migrants and even soldiers from North Korea, while the Russian economy feels the strain of funding a large standing army.

At the same time, the Russian offensive is losing momentum. Ukrainian forces have reclaimed territory in April‑May 2026, aided by extensive drone and robotic operations—over 22,000 unmanned missions in the first three months of the year. The pervasive threat of Ukrainian drones has created a costly “dead zone” on the front, slowing Russian advances and forcing reliance on small infiltration units behind enemy lines. Analysts describe the Russian push as “extremely slow” and warn that without a turnaround the war effort may further falter.