Ukraine attacks push Russian oil refining to 21‑year low, sparking nationwide fuel shortages

Intensive Ukrainian drone strikes have hit at least 24 of Russia’s 34 large oil refineries, cutting crude‑processing capacity to an average of 3.91 million barrels per day in July 2026 – the lowest level since March 2005 and more than 1.4 million barrels per day below the same period a year earlier. The output collapse represents a drop of over 60 % and leaves domestic gasoline production at about 65 % of seasonal demand.

In response, the Russian government has imposed export bans on diesel (effective until the end of July), gasoline and jet fuel, while seeking to import gasoline from abroad. Fuel shortages have triggered long queues at stations, regional licence‑plate rationing, and emergency measures such as deploying school teachers and volunteer patrols to monitor queues. Prices have surged, with diesel futures in London rising about 11 % in a week and retail diesel prices climbing in several European markets.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged the crisis, noting daily meetings to stabilise supplies. The IEA and independent analysts estimate that more than half of Russia’s refining capacity has been disrupted since early May, confirming the strategic impact of the attacks on Russia’s energy sector and on global fuel markets.