Russia's hybrid warfare uses Telegram‑recruited saboteurs to destabilize Poland and Europe
Polish internal security agency ABW reports a sharp rise in counter‑intelligence investigations, attributing the surge to intensified activity by Russian and Belarusian intelligence services. German BND director Martin Jäger told the Munich Security Conference that “Moscow today has 60,000 intelligence officers worldwide, not counting informants.”
Analysts describe a core model of “single‑use agents” recruited via Telegram ads in Russian, Belarusian and Ukrainian languages. The model is cheap, hard to detect and can reach many targets. A highlighted case was the 2023 fire at Warsaw’s Marywilska 44 shopping centre, which destroyed about 1,400 stores; Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, “We know for certain the fire was ordered by Russian secret services.” Three Ukrainians involved have been sentenced, while investigations continue.
Since 2024 Russia has expanded the model, adding organized sabotage cells staffed by former soldiers, police or Wagner‑linked mercenaries. Notable incidents include a November 2025 explosion on the Warsaw‑Lublin rail line, a wave of Russian drones entering Polish airspace, and three Russian MiG‑31 fighters briefly violating Estonian airspace, prompting NATO‑Article‑4 consultations. Parallel influence operations involve bot networks on X, Belarusian state radio promoting a pro‑Russian candidate in Polish elections, and extensive TikTok propaganda. The combined pressure helped elect conservative historian Karol Nawrocki as Warsaw’s mayor, a result seen as partially favorable to Moscow.