Russia's oil revenue hit as Urals price drops to $42 a barrel

Russian Urals crude averaged $41.66 per barrel during the first three days of July, dropping from more than $59 per barrel since March and a June peak of $60.92 after a U.S.–Iran agreement restored Hormuz shipping. The slide erases the extra revenue the Kremlin had counted on from the conflict and puts pressure on a federal budget that assumes oil prices of about $59 per barrel. Oil and gas make up roughly one‑third of Russia’s budget revenues.

A European intelligence assessment cited by Reuters warns that Russian banks are becoming increasingly vulnerable after years of war‑driven lending, with around 10% of corporate loans now doubtful and some lenders reporting non‑performing retail loan ratios as high as 15%. The report also notes more than 500,000 personal bankruptcies in 2025. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ongoing campaign against Russian energy infrastructure saw drones intercepted near the Baltic ports of Ust‑Luga and Primorsk, though no damage to oil exports was reported.