Russia's Putin may resort to hybrid warfare as war in Ukraine persists

As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth and a half year, the initial Russian objectives of a rapid regime change and halting NATO expansion have largely failed. Instead, the European Union has maintained a unified front through sanctions, Ukraine's EU integration is progressing, and NATO has expanded to include Finland and Sweden.

The prolonged conflict is reportedly eroding Vladimir Putin's domestic authority. Analysts suggest that as his position becomes more precarious, he may employ unpredictable foreign policy tactics to test NATO's unity and collective defense commitments. Potential targets for limited military operations include Poland or the Baltic states.

More likely than direct military conflict are hybrid warfare tactics directed at neighboring regions. These include sabotage, cyberattacks, GPS jamming, drone incursions, infrastructure damage, disinformation, and minor border provocations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes within Russian territory, including attacks on Wildberries warehouses, have increased domestic fear and potentially undermined support for the war within Russia.