Russia's Stalled Offensive in Ukraine After Four Years of Conflict

On 24 February 2022 Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" to invade Ukraine, claiming the aim was to remove a "Nazi" regime. Although Russia entered the war with a numerical advantage—four times more troops, three times more tanks and a defence budget ten times larger than Ukraine's—its forces quickly struggled to advance in northern and eastern Ukraine.

A study released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in January estimates that the war has caused more than two million casualties, including about 1.2 million Russian soldiers killed, wounded or missing and 500‑600 thousand Ukrainian losses. To replenish depleted ranks, Moscow has turned to foreign volunteers, recruiting Indians, Pakistanis, Nepalis, Cubans and approximately 17 000 North Korean fighters.

Russia now controls roughly 12 % of Ukrainian territory, plus the 8 % annexed Crimea in 2014 and parts of the Donbass. In the most recent year, Russian forces gained only about 4 800 km²—about the size of France’s Ariège department—at the cost of roughly 415 000 human losses, indicating a protracted and costly stalemate.