Russia may prepare NATO attack after Ukraine war ends, analysts say

U.S. military analyst Michael Kofman told a Carnegie Endowment conference that Russia could be ready to launch a large‑scale attack on a NATO member within five to seven years after the war in Ukraine ends. He said the scenario of a broad attack is more significant than a limited strike and depends on how the current conflict concludes and how Russian forces are positioned along a frozen front line. Kofman noted that Russia’s armed forces, now about 1.3 million strong, are financially and demographically strained and unlikely to return to pre‑war levels of 850,000 troops. While some capabilities have degraded, others – such as precision strikes, artillery support and drone production (up to 100,000 units a year) – have improved. Defence spending now consumes roughly 40 % of the state budget and 8‑10 % of GDP, which Moscow’s own central bank and finance ministry deem unsustainable. Future cuts will spare strategic air‑defence, missile, and long‑range strike assets, leaving the force a “patchwork” of modernised and outdated elements. Kofman also highlighted the ongoing debate in Russia over the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons and the end of the New START arms‑control regime, which has prompted NATO members such as the United Kingdom to reassess their non‑strategic nuclear forces. The analysis stresses that Russia’s military effort continues to rely on Chinese components and raw materials, a partnership that is unlikely to change. Ukrainian military analyst Olexandr Musiyenko added that Moscow has drafted several scenarios to pressure NATO’s eastern flank, including false‑flag provocations, air‑space violations by drones, and covert actions aimed at Poland, Finland and the Baltic states. He said these plans aim to test NATO’s resolve and could be used to force negotiations on a new security arrangement in Europe.