Russia could launch attack on a NATO member within a decade, analyst warns

American military analyst Michael Kofman told a Carnegie Endowment conference that Russia may be prepared to carry out a large‑scale attack on a NATO country as early as five to seven years after the war in Ukraine ends. He cited the strain of the conflict on Russia’s defence budget – roughly 40 % of the state budget and 8‑10 % of GDP – and its demographic and economic limits, noting that the armed forces are unlikely to revert to the pre‑war size of 850,000 personnel.

Kofman said the Russian military is a “patchwork” of modernised capabilities such as precision strikes, artillery support and a drone‑production capacity of up to 100,000 units a year, alongside degraded assets. He highlighted the ongoing debate in Moscow over the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons and the recent termination of the New START arms‑control treaty, which has prompted countries like the United Kingdom to reassess their own nuclear spending. Russia’s ties with China remain strong, with Beijing continuing to supply key components while focusing on its Pacific and US confrontations.

The analysis suggests that, despite fiscal and manpower constraints, Russia retains the ability to threaten NATO’s eastern flank and could seek to force a negotiated settlement by escalating pressure on the alliance.