Russia's Ukraine war creates manpower shortage and tests EU strategic autonomy

Russia is struggling to replace combat troops as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year. Recruitment incentives have failed to stop a 20% decline in new enlistees in the first quarter, and Western intelligence estimates about 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. The loss of manpower is spilling into the civilian economy, driving up wages and creating what analysts call the most severe labor shortage in Russian history.

At the same time, the European Union's plan for strategic autonomy is under pressure. Moscow has rejected peace proposals from Germany, France and the United Kingdom, and Kremlin spokesman Vladimir Putin warned that Europe's security can be discussed only with Washington. The EU's reliance on U.S. nuclear and logistical support, coupled with a weak defence industry, has highlighted the fragility of its ambition to act independently in the face of Russian aggression.