Scientists identify method to predict El Niño events up to 12 months in advance

Researchers have discovered a key factor that allows for the prediction of El Niño and La Niña events up to a year ahead, potentially providing more time for global communities to prepare for extreme weather. A study published in Science Advances by scientists from CSIRO and the University of Melbourne indicates that the initial state of the Pacific Ocean at the start of a forecast is crucial for long-term accuracy.

The research, which analyzed over 7,500 historical ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) forecasts, found that predictions initiated during La Niña conditions were consistently accurate even when forecasting a year in advance. Conversely, forecasts made during neutral ocean conditions were significantly less reliable.

As the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirms the imminence of El Niño, with a potential peak between October and December, these predictive advancements are critical. El Niño can trigger global weather shifts, including droughts in Africa and India and exceptional rainfall along the East African coast, impacting various sectors including international tourism.