Scope Ratings projects higher 2026 profits for Greece's major banks

Scope Ratings has upgraded its outlook for the four systemic Greek banks, forecasting higher annual profitability in 2026. The agency attributes the boost to continued loan growth, resilient net‑interest‑margin (NIM) levels and a stronger contribution from fee‑based services. It raised its NIM assumptions by 10 basis points, expects the return on risk‑adjusted weighted assets (RoRWA) to stay near 3%, and projects fee income to reach about 25% of operating revenue by 2026, up from 23% in 2025.

The forecast also notes an elevated cost‑of‑risk, with the aggregate risk charge expected to stay above 50 basis points for the year, and Piraeus Bank already revising its own cost‑of‑risk to roughly 60 basis points after the Katsaeli law impact. Scope highlights a robust macro backdrop – solid tourism, high public‑investment spending from the Recovery and Resilience Fund, and a 9.8% year‑on‑year rise in corporate lending in June 2026, driven by infrastructure, energy transition, tourism and shipping projects. Strategic moves such as Alpha Bank’s integration of AXIA, expanded cooperation with UniCredit, National Bank of Greece’s bancassurance partnership with Allianz, and insurance investments by Eurobank and Piraeus are cited as further drivers of fee‑income growth.