Super El Niño could cause 451,000 heat deaths worldwide

Super El Niño heat-related mortality climate change Global South extreme heat

A new report from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago warns that a powerful Super El Niño could lead to approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027. The study indicates that global land temperatures may rise 1.2°C above normal, a level of warming typically associated with climate change projections for the next two decades. Extreme heat days are expected to increase by 44% compared to average years.

The impact is projected to be most severe in the Global South. Specific mortality estimates include 31,400 additional deaths in Nigeria, 19,300 in Indonesia, 17,500 in Sudan, 15,800 in India, and 13,300 in Brazil. In Peru, the phenomenon is causing exceptional ocean warming, with surface temperature anomalies reaching up to 8.67°C near Paita. Authorities in Peru anticipate temperatures on the northern coast could hit 40°C during the 2026-2027 spring and summer seasons.

Additionally, the FAO has reported a significant funding gap, having received only 20% of the $200 million required to mitigate food crises caused by El Niño in 22 countries.

Entities

Abraham Levy · Climate Impact Lab · El Niño · El Niño · Enfen · FAO · Lima · Michael Greenstone · Peru · Piura · Senamhi · University of Chicago

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 6 SOURCES] A powerful Super El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027. world-today-journal.com · www.thecooldown.com · www.elespectador.com · ndmais.com.br · www.hindimilap.com · +1 more
[○ 1 SOURCE] Light to moderate rainfall is forecast for Cajamarca, Lambayeque, Piura, and Tumbes between September 26 and 27.
[○ 1 SOURCE] Ocean surface temperatures near Paita, Peru, have shown anomalies as high as +8.67°C. totalnewsagency.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] UV radiation levels in the Peruvian coast and Andes are expected to be between 'very high' and 'extremely high'. www.cronicaviva.com.pe
[● 2 SOURCES] Temperatures on the Peruvian coast could reach 40°C during the spring and summer of 2026-2027. ancashaldia.com · diariodechimbote.com
[● 5 SOURCES] Extreme heat days could increase by 44% compared to a normal year due to El Niño. www.elespectador.com · ndmais.com.br · paraguayoindependiente.com · world-today-journal.com · www.liputan6.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque could face torrential rains between January and March 2027.
[○ 1 SOURCE] Lima-Callao recorded a historic September temperature high of 26.9°C. www.radiofolkperu.com
[● 2 SOURCES] India is identified as one of the countries expected to face significant heat-related mortality. paraguayoindependiente.com · www.thecooldown.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] The FAO has received only 20% of the $200 million requested to prepare for food crises caused by El Niño. www.estadao.com.br
[● 2 SOURCES] Temperatures on the northern Peruvian coast could reach 40°C during the spring and summer of 2026-2027. ancashaldia.com · diariodechimbote.com
[● 5 SOURCES] Global land temperatures could be 1.2°C above normal in the coming months due to the El Niño event. www.hindimilap.com · paraguayoindependiente.com · world-today-journal.com · www.elespectador.com · www.liputan6.com