Smartphone market shifts toward premium models amid volume decline

The global smartphone market is undergoing a significant structural shift. Research from Omdia forecasts that shipment volumes will contract by 12% in 2026 to approximately 1.097 billion units. However, the total market value is expected to rise by 12% to $651.6 billion due to a sharp increase in average selling prices (ASPs), which are projected to grow by 27% to $594.

This trend is driven by a move toward premiumization. As manufacturers focus on profitability and face rising component costs—particularly for memory and chipsets—the market for entry-level and ultra-budget devices is shrinking. Conversely, the segment for devices priced above $800 is expected to grow, potentially representing a larger share of shipments than all sub-$200 devices combined by 2027.

In emerging markets, this shift poses risks to digital inclusion. The GSMA has warned that rising handset costs could deepen the mobile internet gap in countries like Nigeria, where affordability is a primary barrier to connectivity. In response to higher new device prices, the refurbished market is seeing growth. In India, refurbished smartphone volumes rose by 13% in the first half of 2026, as consumers seek more affordable ways to access premium hardware.