Smartphone production forecast raised to 1.07 billion units for 2026

TrendForce has revised its 2026 global smartphone production forecast upward to 1.07 billion units, up from the previous estimate of 1.05 billion. This adjustment follows a second quarter where production reached 275 million units, performing better than market expectations despite an 8% year-on-year decline.

Two primary factors are driving this trend: consumers are purchasing devices early to avoid anticipated price hikes caused by rising memory costs, and manufacturers are replenishing production plans that were previously cut due to high component expenses. However, analysts warn that this is a short-term consumption effect rather than a fundamental market recovery. Pressure from rising memory contract prices is expected to persist into 2027.

In the second quarter, Samsung maintained the top market share with 62 million units produced, a 7% increase, utilizing ODM production to manage costs. Apple followed with approximately 52 million units, a 14% increase, driven by iPhone 17 series pricing strategies. Other major producers include OPPO, Xiaomi, and vivo, while Transsion saw a 27% decline in production due to its focus on entry-level models and lower memory inventory.