São Paulo real estate market sees rising inventory and regional expansion

The real estate market in São Paulo is experiencing a shift in inventory and location preferences. In the capital, five neighborhoods concentrate more than half of the city's medium and high-end property stock. Moema leads with R$ 11 billion in inventory, representing 17% of the total, followed by Jardim Paulista with R$ 7 billion. Other significant areas include Pinheiros, Vila Mariana, and Itaim Bibi.

Analysts from Itaú BBA note that sales velocity is declining, with ready-to-move units reaching 20 months of supply for high-end properties and 15 months for medium-income segments. This excess supply, combined with high interest rates affecting affordability, is considered a primary risk for developers.

Simultaneously, there is a growing trend toward horizontal residential developments in the outskirts of São Paulo. Driven by a search for quality of life and better value per square meter, high-end gated communities and allotments are expanding in cities such as Campinas, Atibaia, São Roque, and São José dos Campos. Data from Secovi-SP indicates that 445 such developments were launched in the interior of São Paulo between 2023 and 2025, with Campinas and its surroundings accounting for 41% of these launches.