Social Security retirement trust fund projected to deplete by 2032

The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund is projected to run dry in the fourth quarter of 2032, according to the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report. If Congress does not act to address the shortfall, incoming payroll taxes and other income would only cover approximately 78% of scheduled benefits, resulting in an across-the-board cut of roughly 22%.

Factors contributing to the earlier depletion date include lower assumed fertility rates, lower net immigration, and the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is expected to reduce future revenue from income taxes on benefits. While the OASI fund faces depletion, the Disability Insurance fund is not projected to be depleted through 2100. If lawmakers were to merge the two funds, trustees project reserves could last until 2034.

Alternative forecasts suggest even more significant impacts. The Congressional Budget Office anticipates the retirement trust fund could run out as early as mid-2032, potentially leading to benefit cuts of 26%. Additionally, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reported that a 24% cut could result in an average monthly reduction of $500 for beneficiaries across the United States.