South China Sea low pressure system likely to become first 2026 typhoon, threatens Vietnam

A low pressure system entered the South China Sea on 30 June 2026 and is expected to intensify. Forecasts give an 80‑85% chance of it becoming a tropical depression and a 60‑65% probability of developing into the season’s first tropical storm (bão số 1). The system, labeled 96W and named Henry by the Philippines, is moving west‑northwest toward the northern Vietnamese coast and the Hoàng Sa (Spratly) area, with a 70% chance of affecting the Ha Long Bay region.

Meteorologists warn of strong winds reaching gale to storm force (force 6‑8), sea‑swell up to 3 m, and heavy rain over northern Vietnam from 4 – 7 July. The rain could trigger flooding, landslides and localised inundation, especially in mountainous and coastal districts. Authorities have issued warnings, advising fishermen and residents in coastal provinces to monitor updates and take precautionary measures.

The event is the first potential tropical storm of the 2026 Pacific typhoon season and may affect maritime traffic in the contested Spratly Islands as well as nearby Chinese waters.