Brazil agriculture faces climate risks and planting delays

Brazil's agricultural sector faces significant climate and operational challenges for the 2026/27 season. StoneX reports that a strong El Niño, potentially combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, could disrupt soybean, corn, and coffee production in the final quarter of 2026. While the South may see above-average rainfall, other regions face risks from heatwaves and irregular precipitation.

In terms of production forecasts, Safras & Mercado projects the 2026/27 soybean harvest to reach 181.8 million tons, a 2% increase driven by expanded planting areas, particularly in the Center-West region. However, experts warn that increased acreage does not guarantee higher yields if climate conditions or technological investments falter.

Operational hurdles are already emerging. In Rio Grande do Sul, excessive rainfall has hindered soybean planting by limiting machinery movement. Meanwhile, in Mato Grosso, weather alerts have been issued for intense rain and strong winds, posing risks to both urban areas and rural producers. In Mato Grosso, agricultural associations emphasize the critical importance of the first 30 days post-emergence to ensure crop establishment and manage weed competition.