Spain's PSOE ahead in July CIS poll as Ábalos conviction fuels shift

The Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) released its July 2026 barometer, the first poll taken after the Supreme Court sentenced former minister José Luis Ábalos to 24 years in prison for the "mask case" and after the director of the Guardia Civil, Mercedes González, and the agency’s deputy operational chief, Manuel Llamas, were indicted in the "Leire" investigation. The survey shows the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) leading with about 33% of voting intention, an increase of roughly 1.7 points from June, while the People's Party (PP) drops to around 25%, widening the gap to almost eight points. Vox remains third with roughly 15% support, and smaller parties such as Sumar, Podemos, ERC and others stay below 7%. In response to the judicial rulings, the PP tabled a non‑binding motion in Congress urging Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to face a confidence vote or resign; the motion passed with backing from Vox and Junts. The poll also reflects ongoing debate over the "law of grandchildren" citizenship measure and other political controversies shaping Spain’s outlook ahead of the scheduled 2027 general election.