Strait of Hormuz instability threatens global maritime trade

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have highlighted the extreme vulnerability of global supply chains. Approximately 80% of world trade is carried by sea, much of which passes through twelve critical maritime chokepoints. In the last five years, significant disruptions have occurred in the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, the Bosphorus, Bab al-Mandab, and the Strait of Hormuz.

Geopolitical tensions have emerged as a primary threat to maritime transport. The threat of attacks alone can force shipping companies to reroute, increasing transport and insurance costs. While Middle Eastern crude exports reached 16.33 million barrels per day in September—the highest level since the start of the conflict—this remains roughly 3.2 million barrels below pre-war levels.

Market uncertainty persists as oil prices remain volatile and bond yields rise due to concerns over inflation and energy costs. Additionally, the crisis has shifted from crude oil to refined products, with diesel supplies constrained by attacks on energy infrastructure and export restrictions in China.