Strong El Niño forecast threatens Peru and global climate in 2026‑27

Scientists warn that the next El Niño event, expected to develop from June 2026 to March 2027, may reach “strong” intensity. Peru’s National Multidisciplinary Committee for El Niño (ENFEN) raised its alert, citing unusually high sea‑surface temperatures and sea‑level rise of more than 15 cm along the Peruvian coast. The agency says the phenomenon could cause severe droughts in the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, while bringing extreme rainfall and flooding to Peru and surrounding tropical regions.

NASA and European space agencies have detected a large mass of anomalously warm water in the central‑eastern Pacific using Sentinel‑6 data. Researchers note that the warm‑water bulge is moving toward the western coasts of South America, a key trigger for El Niño development. NOAA estimates a 63 % chance that the event will become “very strong,” potentially contributing to a new global temperature record in 2027. The anticipated climate impacts could affect agriculture, water resources and economies across multiple continents.