Sudan civil war faces potential tipping point amid regional interference

The civil war in Sudan, which began in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has evolved into a major humanitarian crisis marked by famine, mass displacement, and widespread human rights violations. The conflict has expanded across thirteen states and threatens to destabilize the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.

International involvement has complicated the conflict, as various regional powers provide support to the opposing sides. The SAF receives backing from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Eritrea, while the RSF is supported by allies in Chad, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. This geopolitical competition has led to concerns that international intervention may be prolonging the war rather than resolving it.

Recent reports suggest potential progress toward peace, with discussions regarding the formation of a preparatory committee of independent experts to organize a dialogue conference. However, analysts emphasize the need for a Sudanese-led mediation process to ensure national ownership and mitigate the risks of external interests dictating fragile compromises.