Sudan war threatens to destabilize eastern Chad

The ongoing war in Sudan is threatening to destabilize eastern Chad by reviving old communal fractures. According to the International Crisis Group, the conflict poses a risk that the tensions seen in Darfur could take root across the border.

Since 2023, eastern Chad has experienced a massive influx of Sudanese refugees, alongside Chadians returning from Sudan. This demographic pressure is concentrated in areas where access to water, arable land, pastures, healthcare, and food was already limited. The competition for these scarce resources risks escalating into communal disputes that could become politicized through existing regional identities and alliances.

Historically, the border between the two nations has been porous, with shared family, community, and economic ties. The current crisis threatens to import Sudanese instability into Chad, potentially mirroring the violent patterns observed during the Darfur conflict in the early 2000s.