El Nino intensifies, threatening global lives and causing severe drought in Vietnam

El Nino heatwave mortality climate change drought risk extreme weather

A powerful El Nino event is intensifying, posing significant global and regional risks. Climate scientists warn that extreme heatwaves could lead to approximately 451,000 additional deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027. Tropical nations, including Indonesia, India, Brazil, Nigeria, and Sudan, are expected to face the most severe impacts, while Southeast Asia and the African Sahel remain highly vulnerable.

In Vietnam, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting predicts a very strong El Nino phase through late 2026, with a high probability of reaching peak intensity between October and December. This is expected to result in a warmer-than-average winter and increased risks of severe drought, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion, particularly in the Central, Central Highlands, and Southern regions. The conditions are being compared to the severe drought of the 2015-2016 season.

Across Asia, governments are shifting from monitoring to active preparation. China is implementing climate risk mapping and 100-day preparedness campaigns to protect agriculture and urban areas. In Hong Kong, policies are being adjusted to protect workers from extreme heat. The World Meteorological Organization suggests the phenomenon could persist into early 2027, necessitating sustained adaptation measures to ensure food and water security.

Entities

Climate Impact Lab · National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting · University of Chicago · Vietnam · World Meteorological Organization

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 2 SOURCES] A strong El Nino could cause approximately 451,000 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. thanhnien.vn
[● 3 SOURCES] Vietnam faces severe drought risks, particularly in Central, Central Highlands, and Southern regions, similar to the 2015-2016 dry season. tienphong.vn
[● 4 SOURCES] The 2026-2027 winter in Vietnam is expected to be warmer than average with less frequent cold air activity. fr.vietnamplus.vn · tienphong.vn
[○ 1 SOURCE] The El Nino phenomenon is expected to maintain high intensity through late 2026 and potentially persist until February 2027.
[● 2 SOURCES] Tropical nations including Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil are projected to be among the hardest hit by El Nino. thanhnien.vn
[○ 1 SOURCE] Sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region were approximately 2°C above the long-term average in the second week of September 2026. fr.vietnamplus.vn