Super El Niño Forecast Heightens Record Rain Risk in Japan

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced on June 11 that an El Niño event has begun and assigned a 63% probability that it will develop into a strong “Super El Niño.” The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed the development the following day. The intensified phenomenon is expected to push the Pacific high‑pressure system farther north and raise sea‑surface temperatures in the Japan Sea, creating conditions that could produce exceptionally heavy rain during Japan’s upcoming rainy season.

Forecasters warn that the Hokuriku region, especially Fukui Prefecture, may see precipitation totals exceeding 200 mm between early and mid‑July, far above the seasonal average of 184 mm. The combination of abundant atmospheric moisture and a stalled front raises the risk of landslides, floods, and transport disruptions. The forecast also notes potential impacts on winter snowfall patterns in the United States and Japan, though the exact outcome will depend on additional atmospheric factors.