Super El Niño formation threatens global weather and commodity markets

The National Climate Center has announced the official formation of a super El Niño event, characterized by significant sea surface temperature rises in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This event is expected to peak in late autumn or early winter and may become the strongest recorded in history, surpassing the 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016 events.

The phenomenon is projected to act as a global climate amplifier, triggering extreme weather patterns including heavy rainfall, floods, droughts, and altered typhoon paths. In China, this may lead to increased flood risks in the Yangtze River basin and potential droughts in the northwest. By 2027, the effects may manifest as significant precipitation increases in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze.

Beyond weather, the event poses substantial economic risks to global supply chains. Agricultural sectors are particularly vulnerable; extreme temperatures and irregular rainfall are impacting cocoa production in Ivory Coast and reducing grain yield forecasts. Specifically, India's sugar production forecast for the 2026/27 period has been lowered by over 12% due to heat and lack of rain. These disruptions are already influencing global commodity markets, with rising prices for corn, wheat, and sugar, and increased volatility in agricultural stocks.