Super El Niño threatens global agriculture and drives extreme heat in vulnerable cities

The El Niño climate pattern has officially started in the equatorial Pacific, and scientists estimate a 62 % chance it will intensify into a “Super El Niño”. A stronger than normal warming of sea‑surface temperatures is expected to persist through December and could drive severe weather anomalies worldwide – including droughts, floods, disrupted monsoons, and increased strain on power grids.

Researchers from the University of Oxford identified 20 cities most exposed to extreme heat under a Super El Niño, many in South and Southeast Asia and sub‑Saharan Africa, such as Karachi, Delhi, Lagos and Nairobi. The study notes that high temperatures combined with dense housing, poverty, limited access to cooling and weak health infrastructure amplify risks to public health, infrastructure and economies.

Past strong El Niño events have cut yields of palm oil, coffee, cocoa, cotton and staple grains, and caused billions of dollars in damages. Current forecasts warn of similar threats to global agriculture and energy supply chains, with potential knock‑on effects on food prices and inflation.