Super El Niño threatens global agriculture, food prices and insurance costs

An unusually early warming of the Pacific Ocean has sparked forecasts of a “Super El Niño,” arriving months ahead of the typical season. Meteorologists say the phenomenon could persist into early 2027, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration assigning a 97% chance it will last that long and an 81% chance of becoming very strong.

Regional impacts are already visible. In western Canada, the early El Niño is expected to bring a milder, drier winter, preserving soil‑moisture reserves for most growers, though prolonged heat could strain southern farms. In eastern Australia, dryness is already affecting winter crops, and Southeast Asian palm‑oil producers in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia face heightened drought risk.

Economists warn that a strong El Niño will compound existing pressures on food, insurance and tourism sectors. Drought and flooding can cut yields of staples such as rice while boosting soybean production, driving up grocery prices and increasing insurance claims from extreme weather events. The combined effect may raise household costs for food, energy and travel across many regions.