Super El Niño threatens global food prices and UK agriculture

Scientists warn that a strong El Niño weather cycle is forming in the Pacific, with a 63 % chance of a dramatic rise in sea‑surface temperatures. Analysts anticipate a 15.8 % jump in global food commodity prices and a possible 14.3 % reduction in worldwide agricultural output, which could cost the global economy about $342 billion. The emerging pattern is already causing severe drought in India, lowering wheat, rice and sugar‑cane yields, and disrupting anchovy stocks that supply fishmeal for European aquaculture.

In the United Kingdom, experts expect the El Niño to intensify weather extremes: wetter conditions will increase flooding risk, while drier periods could worsen drought and wildfire danger. The shrinkage in South‑American anchovy catches may raise prices for farmed fish such as salmon and prawns in Britain. The combined climate and market pressures are raising concerns among central banks and commodity traders about a prolonged “climate‑inflation” effect on food costs through at least 2028.