Super El Niño threatens global food prices through 2028

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised the likelihood that the 2026‑27 El Niño will become a very strong event, with a 63 % chance sea‑surface temperatures exceed 2 °C above normal and an 81 % chance of a “very strong” episode between October and December. Economists and analysts warn that the ensuing climate extremes – heatwaves, floods and droughts – could push global food‑commodity prices up by as much as 15.8 %, with Euro‑zone food inflation expected to rise about 1.3 %, according to Goldman Sachs. The price shock could extend into the second half of 2028 because planting, growing and harvest cycles delay the full transmission of climate‑driven cost increases. The impact is compounded by the war in Iran, which has already lifted food prices to three‑year highs and added strain to supply chains. Central banks may keep interest rates elevated to combat inflation. Regional forecasts note severe winter anomalies in Mexico, heightened rainfall and flood risk in Argentina, and varied effects across other continents. A separate scientific proposal suggests a temporary marine‑cloud‑brightening geo‑engineering technique to modestly reduce El Niño’s intensity, though it remains experimental. Overall, experts stress urgent monitoring and preparation for widespread economic and humanitarian repercussions.