Super El Niño threatens global food prices through 2028

The 2026‑27 El Niño cycle is expected to develop into a very strong “Super El Niño” (also called “Godzilla” El Niño). NOAA reports a 63 % chance that Pacific sea‑surface temperatures will exceed two degrees Celsius above normal later this year, raising the risk of extreme heat waves, floods and storms.

Economists warn that the phenomenon will hit food markets already strained by the war in Iran, which has pushed global food prices to three‑year highs. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 15.8 % rise in global food‑commodity prices and a 1.3 % increase in Euro‑area consumer food prices. UBS notes the impact will be uneven, creating regional winners and losers.

Analysts project that the combined climate shock could cut global agricultural output by about 14.3 % – a loss of roughly $342 billion – and that the full price effects may not materialise until the second half of 2028 as different crops reach harvest. The most vulnerable are low‑income countries already suffering from higher energy and fertilizer costs, with staple crops such as rice, wheat, corn, sugarcane, coffee, cocoa and palm oil at risk.

UniCredit analysts describe the situation as “climate inflation”, warning that the El Niño could add a new layer of price pressure to already rising living‑cost burdens worldwide.