Super El Niño threatens US travel with widespread disruptions through winter

A powerful El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, with NOAA indicating an 81 % chance it will become the strongest on record by fall and a 97 % chance it will persist through the upcoming winter and into spring. Forecasters warn the phenomenon could shift storm tracks across the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard, raising the risk of travel delays and cancellations for millions of Americans from August through March.

NASA’s Sentinel‑6 Michael Freilich satellite has already detected elevated sea‑surface height in the central and eastern Pacific, a sign that warm water is storing heat below the surface. Scientists say the pattern resembles the 1997 El Niño that produced major global weather impacts. The heat buildup may increase rainfall in the U.S. Southwest while heightening drought risk in parts of the western Pacific, including Indonesia and Australia. The combined climate and satellite data suggest the 2026 El Niño could reshape weather patterns worldwide, with the strongest effects expected during the Northern Hemisphere winter.