Super El Niño set to drive atypical autumn and winter weather across Europe 2026‑27

Meteorologists identify a rapidly intensifying Super El Niño as the dominant climate driver for Europe’s autumn and winter of 2026‑27. Sea‑surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are already 3‑4 °C above normal, surpassing the 2 °C threshold that defines a Super El Niño and likely making this one of the strongest episodes recorded since the 1950s. The U.S. NOAA reports a 63 % chance that the phenomenon will reach “very strong” intensity between November 2026 and January 2027.

Seasonal models forecast above‑average temperatures and above‑normal precipitation across much of the continent, with frequent Atlantic moisture streams bringing storms and strong winds, especially in north‑west Europe. At the same time, the strengthening El Niño could weaken the polar vortex, increasing the risk of cold‑air intrusions and heavy snowfall in northern and central Europe – parts of the United Kingdom, Scandinavia, Germany and Poland are highlighted as the most vulnerable.

The combined effect of the Pacific warming, a re‑emerging Atlantic “cold blob,” and potential polar‑vortex disruptions creates a complex outlook: generally milder conditions punctuated by possible severe cold spells and significant snow events later in the winter.