Supertanker shortages and geopolitical tensions threaten global oil flows

The global oil market is facing potential disruptions due to a shortage of supertankers and escalating freight costs. High rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are making long-distance shipments, particularly from the Middle East and the U.S. Gulf to Asia, economically unviable. This shortage may act as a constraint on global oil flows and could influence future oil prices.

Market analysts at Bimco report that tanker demand is under pressure from declining seaborne oil volumes and export disruptions. While a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran briefly raised hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations have stalled, leaving the security of the waterway uncertain.

Year-to-date exports of crude oil and heavy petroleum products have fallen by 5.7%, while clean petroleum product exports have declined by 11.2%. Disruptions are also noted in Saudi Arabian exports through the Red Sea and Russian exports, which are increasingly affected by attacks on refineries and shipping infrastructure. Depending on whether conditions in the Strait of Hormuz normalize or remain disrupted, the tanker market outlook for 2027 varies between recovery and significant weakness.