Sweden's unemployment set to decline slowly amid sectoral shifts

Labor economists at the Swedish Confederation of Professional Employees (LO) warn that unemployment remains historically high but is beginning to fall, especially among construction workers, whose registered unemployment has dropped by over 20% in the past year. Other LO unions report declines of 6‑10%, while the Akademikerna unemployment fund is the only one with an increase, driven by an 80% rise in registered unemployed among IT and data specialists, a trend tentatively linked to AI displacement.

The Swedish Public Employment Service (Arbetsförmedlingen) forecasts that the national unemployment rate will gradually decline to around 6% by 2027, down from the current 6.4% (339,000 people). The projection rests on modest growth in household consumption, increased housing construction, and steady hiring in manufacturing and the broader private services sector. Public‑sector hiring is mixed, with fewer jobs expected in education due to shrinking birth cohorts, while health care continues to face staff shortages. Persistent challenges include long‑term unemployed workers with limited qualifications and the need for targeted training, apprenticeships, and subsidised employment to avoid deeper labour market imbalances.