Taiwan population projected to drop 48% by 2075

The National Development Council (NDC) has released new population projections for Taiwan from 2026 to 2075, revealing a severe demographic crisis. Due to declining fertility rates and an aging population, Taiwan's total population is expected to drop by 48% by 2075, reaching approximately 12.15 million people.

By 2037, middle-aged and elderly individuals aged 45 to 64 are projected to constitute more than half of the working-age population, signaling a significant tightening of the labor supply. The NDC has revised its long-term total fertility rate assumptions downward, with the high, medium, and low scenarios for 2075 adjusted to 1.1, 0.8, and 0.6 respectively.

Addressing why Taiwan has not seen the recent fertility rebounds observed in South Korea, officials noted that Taiwan lacks a structural demographic dividend. Unlike South Korea, which benefits from a large post-war baby boom generation entering childbearing years, Taiwan's population of women aged 20 to 49 has been steadily declining since 2005.

In response, the government has established a new strategic task force for population policy. Following the release of the ‘Family Support’ measures in May, which include 18 initiatives covering childcare and housing, the administration plans to introduce further strategies focusing on the elderly, talent development, and global recruitment.