Tarcísio de Freitas tops São Paulo governor race poll at 46%

The Datafolha poll conducted from July 1‑3 surveyed 1,608 registered voters in 71 municipalities of São Paulo. It has a margin of error of two percentage points.

Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leads the gubernatorial race with 46% of total voting intentions, while former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) trails at 30%. Minor left‑wing candidates each capture 4‑5% (Vera Lúcia 5%, Vivian Mendes 4%, Carlos Machado 4%). Blank, null or “none” votes total 8% and 3% are undecided. Considering only valid votes – the figure used by the Electoral Justice – Tarcísio reaches 52% versus Haddad’s 34%, a lead that could secure a first‑round victory if the election were held today.

A separate approval question shows 45% of respondents rating Tarcísio’s administration as good or excellent, 32% as regular, and 20% as bad or terrible; 63% approve his overall performance. Security and health are the two biggest problems cited by voters, each mentioned by 27% of those surveyed.