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Tarcísio de Freitas leads São Paulo gubernatorial polls
As the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election approaches, polling data indicates a significant advantage for incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas. Datafolha reports that Tarcísio holds 56% of valid votes compared to 37% for Fernando Haddad, potentially securing a first-round victory. Other polls, including Quaest and Realtime Big Data, also place Tarcísio in the lead, though with varying percentages.
The campaign has intensified with heated exchanges. During a televised debate, Haddad accused Tarcísio of having political ties to Milton Leite, an ex-councilman recently arrested for alleged links to the criminal organization Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC). Tarcísio responded by characterizing his relationship with Leite as purely institutional.
Tarcísio has maintained a strategy of a “light” campaign, focusing on his administration's achievements rather than direct attacks. Conversely, Haddad has criticized the current administration's management of public services and has complained about limited television advertising time. The election is scheduled for Sunday, October 4.
Entities
Datafolha · Fernando Haddad · Globo · Milton Leite · Quaest · São Paulo · Tarcísio de Freitas
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] A Quaest poll shows Tarcísio de Freitas at 44% and Fernando Haddad at 24% in the São Paulo gubernatorial race. diariodevotuporanga.com.br
- [DISPUTED] In a Datafolha poll considering all respondents, Tarcísio de Freitas has 50% and Fernando Haddad has 33%. oantagonista.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · www1.folha.uol.com.br · www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · www.cartacapital.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Realtime Big Data reports Tarcísio de Freitas at 53% and Fernando Haddad at 39% in the first round. oantagonista.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] Fernando Haddad has a rejection rate of 45%, while Tarcísio de Freitas has a rejection rate of 29%. www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Tarcísio de Freitas stated his campaign strategy was to remain positive and avoid direct attacks on opponents. www.cnnbrasil.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] During a debate, Fernando Haddad accused Tarcísio de Freitas of having political ties to Milton Leite, who was arrested for links to the PCC. horadopovo.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] In a Datafolha poll, Tarcísio de Freitas holds 56% of valid votes for the São Paulo governorship, while Fernando Haddad holds 37%. www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · www.cartacapital.com.br · www1.folha.uol.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] In a simulated second round, Tarcísio de Freitas would lead Fernando Haddad with 55% to 38%. www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · oantagonista.com.br · www1.folha.uol.com.br