Tarcísio de Freitas likely clinches São Paulo governorship in first round after rivals quit

On June 19, 2024, centre‑right pre‑candidates Kim Kataguiri of Missão/MBL and Paulo Serra of the PSDB formally withdrew from the São Paulo governor race, leaving incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and PT’s Fernando Haddad as the only major contenders.

Polls released after the withdrawals gave Tarcísio between 44 % and 46 % of voter intention, and simulations that exclude the two withdrawn candidates raise his share to roughly 49 %–50 % of valid votes—enough to secure an outright first‑round victory on 4 October. The exits consolidate the liberal‑centre‑right electorate behind Tarcísio, diminish alternatives to the PT candidate, and weaken the strategic value of Haddad’s candidacy for President Lula’s national campaign.