Texas election polls show tight races for Senate and Governor

Recent polling and election forecasts show varying outlooks for the 2026 Texas statewide elections. According to a Texas Pulse Poll, Democrat James Talarico holds a four-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the US Senate, with Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 43%. This represents a shift from a tie in June, driven largely by a significant advantage among independent voters.

In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott maintains a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. While the Texas Pulse Poll shows Abbott ahead by one point (46% to 45%), other forecast models suggest a more decisive Republican advantage, projecting Abbott to have an 86.7% chance of winning and potentially becoming the longest-serving governor in state history.

Other races include a two-point lead for Republican Mayes Middleton over Democrat Nathan Johnson for Attorney General, and a two-point lead for Democrat Vikki Goodwin over Republican incumbent Dan Patrick for Lieutenant Governor.