Argentina provinces face fiscal deficit amid shifting political support

Argentina's provinces recorded a combined primary deficit of 0.04% of GDP in 2025, the first such occurrence since 2017, according to a report by PwC Argentina. This fiscal deterioration contrasts with the national government, which maintained a primary surplus of 1.4% of GDP. The report attributes the provincial deficit to a 5.3% real expansion in spending, driven largely by a 6% increase in current expenditures, particularly personnel costs, which represent 44% of total provincial spending.

Political and social indicators show shifting dynamics. A study by QMonitor indicates a 93% correlation between social tolerance for economic adjustment and President Javier Milei's approval ratings. Data shows that as tolerance for adjustment fell from 44% in October 2025 to 33% in July, presidential approval and voting intention also declined. In Córdoba, Milei's approval dropped to 48% amid rising household debt and poverty.

Regional political developments include the normalization of the Peronist Party (PJ) in Salta, where Julio Argentino San Millán is set to assume leadership following a judicial intervention. In Tucumán, Governor Osvaldo Jaldo has held meetings with security forces to coordinate crime prevention and manage upcoming large-scale events.