Turkey faces energy dilemma amid U.S. threats of sanctions on Iran trade

Turkey faces a significant geopolitical and energy dilemma as the United States threatens economic sanctions against countries that maintain commercial ties with Iran. Iran is currently Turkey’s fourth-largest natural gas supplier, accounting for approximately 13% of its domestic consumption, or roughly 7.7 billion cubic meters in 2025.

Despite regional conflicts and military strikes, bilateral trade between Ankara and Tehran remained robust, reaching approximately $3.1 billion in the first half of the year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that any nation continuing to trade with Iran after an unspecified deadline will face consequences.

Ankara must now weigh the risk of losing a vital energy source against the potential for diplomatic and military benefits from the United States, such as the acquisition of F-35 fighter jets and F-16s. If forced to halt Iranian gas imports, Turkey may need to increase its reliance on more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) and domestic Black Sea production to meet winter demand.