Turkey energy independence and geopolitical security

Turkey has established a long-term goal to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2035. Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar stated that ending dependence on foreign energy is essential for economic and geopolitical security, noting that Turkey spent approximately $100 billion on energy imports in 2022. To reach this target, the government is focusing on domestic oil and gas production in the Black Sea and Gabar, alongside investments in renewable, nuclear, and strategic mineral sectors.

However, this transition faces immediate geopolitical challenges. The United States has threatened economic sanctions against nations maintaining commercial ties with Iran. Because Iran serves as Turkey’s fourth-largest natural gas supplier—providing roughly 13% of domestic consumption—Ankara faces a dilemma. The government must balance the risk of losing Iranian gas against the potential for diplomatic benefits from the U.S., such as the acquisition of F-35 and F-16 fighter jets. If forced to cease Iranian imports, Turkey may need to rely more heavily on domestic Black Sea production and more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG).