Turkey salary projections shift following new inflation forecasts

Projections for January 2027 salary increases in Turkey have shifted following the government's updated inflation forecasts in the Medium-Term Program (OVP). The OVP predicts a year-end inflation rate of 28.4% for 2026, which has altered expectations for civil servants, retirees, and minimum wage earners.

For SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, the projected increase is approximately 9.04%. Civil servants and civil servant retirees are expected to see an increase of around 7%, calculated through a combination of a 5% collective bargaining agreement and inflation differentials. If these projections hold, the lowest civil servant salary could rise from approximately 70,224 TL to roughly 75,140 TL.

Regarding the minimum wage, negotiations are expected to begin in December. If the 28.4% inflation forecast is applied directly to the 2026 net minimum wage of 28,075.50 TL, the 2027 rate could reach 36,048.94 TL. However, if the 21% inflation target for 2027 is used as a baseline, the wage might settle around 33,971 TL. Labor representatives may push for higher adjustments to compensate for the loss in purchasing power, which reportedly reached 6,196 TL during the first eight months of the year due to rising costs in food, housing, and transportation.