Yeni Parti leads July 2026 Turkish election poll, CHP falls below threshold

Yeni Parti Turkish election poll CHP threshold AK Party July 2026

A series of July 2026 opinion polls ahead of Turkey's general election show the newly formed Yeni Parti overtaking the ruling AK Party in several surveys. The Türkiye Veri Haritası poll conducted 25‑29 July with 1,720 respondents placed Yeni Parti at 31.2 % (first), AK Party at 29.2 % (second) and the Republican People’s Party (CHP) at 4.8 % (fifth), leaving CHP below the 7 % electoral bar. Orc Araştırma’s 27‑29 July poll of 1,920 participants recorded AK Party 32.5 %, Yeni Parti 19.4 % and CHP 11.8 %. Alf Araştırma’s 24‑28 July poll of 1,885 respondents gave AK Party 34.2 %, Yeni Parti 19.3 % and CHP 12 %. Özdemir Araştırma’s July survey of 2,007 respondents showed AK Party 28.7 %, Yeni Parti 18.1 % and CHP 7.3 % before redistributing undecided voters; after redistribution AK Party rose to 35.8 %, Yeni Parti to 22.6 % and CHP to 9.1 %. Areda Survey (29‑31 July, 2,400 respondents) reported AK Party 35.3 %, Yeni Parti 16.6 % and CHP 12.2 %. Across the polls, Yeni Parti’s support ranges from about 16 % to 31 %, while CHP consistently falls below the 7 % threshold in the lower‑end surveys, indicating a significant shift in the Turkish opposition landscape.

Entities: Justice and Development Party (AK Party) · Justice and Development Party (AKP) · Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu · Republican People's Party (CHP) · Turkey · Türkiye Veri Haritası · Yeni Parti · Yeni Party · Özgür Özel

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[○ 1 SOURCE] Özdemir Araştırma poll (31 il, 2,007 respondents) gave AKP 28.7 % (35.8 % after redistributing undecided voters), Yeni Parti 18.1 % (22.6 % after redistribution) and CHP 7.3 % (9.1 % after). (243f79d1-88c8-475e-84e5-5719ddcbbaf1)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Orc Araştırma poll (27‑29 July) gave AKP 32.5 %, Yeni Parti 19.4 % and CHP 11.8 % support. (9df51234-508c-463a-a284-af88a68d191b)
[● 3 SOURCES] In multiple July 2026 polls, the CHP fell below the 7 % electoral threshold. (04168873-62ef-4774-8824-8fbd7d5d458d, 85fd3827-31e7-416e-a18a-0506a8ea5901, 240eb857-e663-408a-94ce-d2cd1c0a5eb0)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Alf Araştırma poll (24‑28 July) recorded AKP 34.2 %, Yeni Parti 19.3 % and CHP 12 % support. (195b5e30-b865-401f-9ecc-771b49748053)
[● 3 SOURCES] Türkiye Veri Haritası poll (25‑29 July) gave Yeni Parti 31.2 % support, AKP 29.2 % and CHP 4.8 %, placing CHP below the 7 % threshold. (04168873-62ef-4774-8824-8fbd7d5d458d, 85fd3827-31e7-416e-a18a-0506a8ea5901, 240eb857-e663-408a-94ce-d2cd1c0a5eb0)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Areda Survey (29‑31 July) reported AKP 35.3 %, Yeni Parti 16.6 % and CHP 12.2 % support. (9f3b84d0-5f86-4921-ba20-a73b641b0bc5)
[● 2 SOURCES] İYİ Parti’s reported support varied across polls, ranging from 2.8 % to 7.9 %. (195b5e30-b865-401f-9ecc-771b49748053, 9df51234-508c-463a-a284-af88a68d191b)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Özdemir Araştırma poll (31 il, 2,007 respondents) gave AK Party 28.7 % and Yeni Parti 18.1 % before redistribution; after redistributing undecided voters AK Party 35.8 %, Yeni Parti 22.6 % and CHP 9.1 (243f79d1-88c8-475e-84e5-5719ddcbbaf1)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Alf Araştırma poll (24‑28 July, 1,885 respondents) gave AK Party 34.2 %, Yeni Parti 19.3 % and CHP 12 %. (195b5e30-b865-401f-9ecc-771b49748053)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Areda Survey (29‑31 July, 2,400 respondents) gave AK Party 35.3 %, Yeni Parti 16.6 % and CHP 12.2 %. (9f3b84d0-5f86-4921-ba20-a73b641b0bc5)
[● 2 SOURCES] In several July 2026 polls, CHP’s vote share fell below the 7 % electoral threshold. (04168873-62ef-4774-8824-8fbd7d5d458d, 243f79d1-88c8-475e-84e5-5719ddcbbaf1)
[● 2 SOURCES] Türkiye Veri Haritası poll (25‑29 July, 1,720 respondents) gave Yeni Parti 31.2 % (first), AK Party 29.2 % (second) and CHP 4.8 % (fifth). (04168873-62ef-4774-8824-8fbd7d5d458d, 85fd3827-31e7-416e-a18a-0506a8ea5901)