Turkey's Central Bank Expected to Keep Policy Rate at 37% Amid Inflation Pressures

International banks forecast that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will leave its policy rate unchanged at 37% in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, citing persistent core inflation around 32.6% and ongoing geopolitical risks. ING Global projects the year‑end dollar/₺ exchange rate at 53.00, notes a modest short‑term easing of lira pressure in May, and expects reserves to remain high despite an $8 billion dip.

Foreign institutions Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs align with ING, indicating that while the current tight stance is likely to be maintained, a shift toward a 40% rate cannot be ruled out if inflation remains above target or geopolitical turmoil intensifies. All three banks keep their year‑end inflation outlook near 30% and expect the effective funding cost to stay around 40%.