Turkey Central Bank to Keep Policy Rate at 37% in July 23 Announcement

The Turkish Central Bank (TCMB) will announce its fifth policy‑rate decision on 23 July 2026 at 14:00 local time. The rate‑setting committee, chaired by Fatih Karahan, is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 37 % and maintain the one‑week repo funding rate at the same level. Analysts, including Tonguç Erbaş, anticipate no shift in policy, stating: “Any policy change in the rate or a move from overnight to weekly funding is unlikely.” Market attention will focus on the accompanying statement for clues about inflation outlook, demand trends and future monetary stance.

In parallel, the TCMB released July data for its Real Sector Confidence Index. The seasonally‑adjusted index fell by 0.8 points to 101.2, while the unadjusted reading slipped to 102.2, indicating a modest weakening of confidence despite continued optimism on export orders. Survey results also showed a rise in inflation expectations (consumer‑price expectations up to 29.21 % for year‑end) and a slight downgrade of growth forecasts for 2026. These developments suggest persistent price‑stability concerns even as the central bank holds rates steady.

Overall, the upcoming rate decision and the confidence‑index release together shape expectations for Turkey’s monetary policy, currency markets and short‑term economic outlook.