Turkey's Export Outlook Improves While Import Outlook Slips in Q3 2026

Turkey’s Ministry of Trade released the third‑quarter 2026 External Trade Outlook Survey. The Export Expectation Index rose to 101.5, a gain of 2.4 points from the previous quarter but 4 points below the same quarter a year earlier. The Import Expectation Index fell to 102.7, down 2.2 points quarter‑on‑quarter and 12.1 points below the same period last year.

Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said the export index above 100 signals stronger exporter confidence and noted that the United States, Australia and Egypt were the top new‑export destinations for Turkish firms. He also highlighted that June exports jumped 21.9% year‑on‑year to $24.94 billion, bringing six‑month export value to $136.06 billion and a 12‑month total of $277.94 billion – a new record.

The ministry indicated that the rise in the export index was driven by optimistic expectations for the next three months, higher export‑order forecasts and recent growth in export orders, while the dip in the import index reflected lower expectations for import unit prices and a decline in current import orders.