Turkish Central Bank Expected to Hold or Raise Rates Amid Inflation Pressures

BBVA Research projects that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) may raise its policy rate to 40% at its June meeting, while keeping the year‑end inflation forecast at around 30% and predicting 3% economic growth. The analysis notes persistent cost pressures, a monthly consumer price increase of 1.7%, and an annual inflation rate of 32.6%.

The TCMB’s Monetary Policy Committee is set to announce its fourth rate decision of the year on Thursday at 14:00, after previously holding the one‑week repo rate steady at 37% in April. The bank cited geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices and inflation risks as reasons for a cautious stance, signaling a possible tightening if inflation deteriorates further.