Turkish TL deposits can outpace dollar returns if exchange‑rate rise stays below 34%

Economist Mahfi Eğilmez explained that a TL deposit offering a net annual interest of 36 % will beat a dollar investment as long as the USD/TRY exchange rate does not increase by more than about 34 %. Using a scenario where the dollar rises from 40 TL to 54.4 TL, the TL deposit would preserve the investor’s dollar value; any larger rise would erase the advantage.

At the same time, Turkish banks have posted very high short‑term rates on TL deposits. For a 500 000 TL investment over a 32‑day term, net returns vary by institution, reaching up to 16 533 TL (about 46 % annualised) at DenizBank. Other banks such as Ziraat, İş, Garanti BBVA and QNB offer net yields between 10 597 TL and 15 008 TL. The listings highlight the importance of considering both the quoted gross rates and the net gains after taxes and fees when choosing a deposit product.