UK Drought Cuts Cereal Harvest, Prompting Shrinkflation

A severe dry spring and summer have left England and Wales with their driest July on record and the warmest June ever recorded. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates the UK’s cereal and oilseed harvest will fall to about 19.5 million tonnes, the lowest level since records began in 1984 and roughly 2.5 million tonnes below earlier forecasts. The shortfall could cost arable farmers up to £390 million in lost revenue.

Tim O’Malley, chairman of Nationwide Produce, warned that supermarkets are likely to resort to “shrinkflation”, selling smaller fruits and vegetables at unchanged prices, and that imports of produce such as broccoli and iceberg lettuce from Spain are already increasing. He said the combination of reduced yields, quality issues and higher import costs could eventually push food prices higher for UK shoppers.